The Economist: The Eurosceptic Union

NIGEL FARAGE, the leader of Britain’s UK Independence Party (UKIP), best summed up the earthquake that shook European politics on May 25th and 26th. European integration once seemed inevitable, he said; from now on it is no longer so. 

Early results (see here) show that right-wing anti-EU parties of various flavours have won in France, Britain and Denmark. The anti-euro (but pro-EU) Alternative für Deutschland has broken through in Germany. In Greece, the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party is set to enter the European Parliament. On the far-left, meanwhile, the anti-troika Syriza party leads the ballot. After the years of financial crisis, the biggest danger to the European project is now economic stagnation and, above all, political rejection.

There are, of course, many caveats to the picture of rampant eruoscepticism. Even though pro-European mainstream parties have been weakened, they still have a two-thirds majority in the European Parliament. In Italy, where politics has been more badly fragmented than in most countries, the Democratic Party has been re-energised under the reformist Matteo Renzi and is on track to win more than 40% of the vote. And even though anti-EU parties have greatly raised their number, they appear to have done badly in the Netherlands and disappointed in Finland.

The European Parliament celebrated the fact that the long slide in voter turnout since direct elections were instituted has at last been arrested, though not yet reversed. The Spitzenkandidaten, the German name for leading candidates of the main umbrella groups to become president of the European Commission, claimed it was a victory for the idea of having a more personal contest for the job. Whether European government leaders agree when they meet for dinner on May 27th is a different matter.

All this said, the blunt reality is that Europe's political fault-line is shifting: from left versus right, to pro-Europeans against anti-Europeans. The night belongs to the likes of Marine Le Pen, who has polished the National Front in France and trounced both the centre-right UMP party and the Socialist Party of François Hollande. The National Front is expected to win about a third of the 74 seats allocated to France, despite a last-minute uproar over comments by Ms Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, who suggested the immigration crisis would be settled by the Ebola virus. One half of the Franco-German motor of EU integration thus appears to have gone into reverse, with unforeseeable consequences for the whole European project.

In Britain, always more sceptical of the European project, Mr Farage’s UKIP seems to have beaten the traditional parties, with the opposition Labour party coming second and the Conservative party of the prime minister, David Cameron, coming third. “I don’t want Britain to leave the EU. I want Europe to leave the EU,” declared Mr Farage.

For pro-Europeans, the relief is that Eurosceptics are split between left and right. Even on the right, they are divided among themselves, ranging from the euro-critical European Conservatives and Reformists, led by Britain’s Tories; to the anti-EU Europe of Freedom and Democracy (EFD), led by UKIP; and a more radical far-right alliance led by Ms Le Pen. Whether there are enough votes and parties on this part of the spectrum for all three to form parliamentary groups (requiring at least 25 seats from seven countries) remains to be seen. Mr Farage, for one, has refused to join forces with Ms Le Pen, citing the racism that he thinks present in the National Front’s DNA. Meanwhile, Ms Le Pen’s main ally, Geert Wilders of the Freedom Party, appears to have come fourth in the Netherlands, perhaps in part because of revulsion at Mr Le Pen’s Ebola comment. The Danish People’s Party, which came first, also distanced itself from Ms Le Pen, hinting it preferred an alliance with Britain’s Tories.

European elections are, of course, tailor-made for a protest vote given that, despite the efforts of the Spitzenkandidaten to raise their profile. As Joseph Daul, leader of the European People’s Party, a centre-right umbrella party, Le Pen would first have to win a national election to force France’s withdrawal from the euro or the EU. Not even the Greeks at the height of the crisis dared go that far.

Nevertheless the Eurosceptics now have political momentum. Governments in Britain and France face an acute dilemma over how to respond, and the likelihood is that they will harden their stance on a host of issues, particularly immigration and EU enlargement. Pressure will rise for EU powers to be repatriated.

In Brussels the reaction of mainstream groups will be to formalise the informal centrist alliance that already operates in the European Parliament. An absolute majority of 376 of the parliaments 751 votes is needed to approve the new president of the European Commission (nominated by government leaders). And given national divisions within the umbrella groups, a majority of about 400 is desirable for a stable majority.

The numbers thus point to a broad coalition of Christian Democrats (EPP) and Socialists (S&D), perhaps with the admixture of the Liberals (ALDE) and the Greens (Greens/EFA). The latest forecasts suggest the EPP will win 212 seats, the S&D 185 seats; ALDE 71 and Greens/EFA 45.

Jean-Claude Juncker, the former prime minister of Luxembourg and Spintzenkandidat for the EPP, has claimed the right to become president of the European Commission, though many suspect he would rather become the president of the European Council, representing leaders (he denies the claim). The other Spitzenkandidaten, however, have not yet conceded the point. Martin Schulz, president of the European Parliament and candidate for the S&D, says the real balance of power is likely to change once the votes are counted. In any case, Mr Schulz hinted, he would be better able to form a coalition, given Mr Juncker’s aversion to deal with Eurosceptics. Mr Juncker said he “will not kneel down” before other parties, but accepts he will have to compromise with them.

Mr Juncker's bigger problem may be with leaders. The prime minister of Hungary, Viktor Orban, has said he will not support Mr Juncker. Mr Cameron is known to oppose allSpitzenkandidaten. But whether Mr Cameron can gather enough overt support to form a blocking minority is unclear.